Everybody knows the saying about that first step... this blog is to document the travel.
I practice kyokushin again after 20 years; I was once 3rd kyu & opted to start at white belt.
The first milestone is to re-earn my rank, then, of course to attain shodan. Let's see where this will take us in the end.
Expect much frustration hand in hand with a study in humility as the inner battles have but a clear outcome...
I entered the dojo in June of 2009 on crutches; we are now in November and I have mostly regained use of my legs: time to get cracking!
I practice kyokushin again after 20 years; I was once 3rd kyu & opted to start at white belt.
The first milestone is to re-earn my rank, then, of course to attain shodan. Let's see where this will take us in the end.
Expect much frustration hand in hand with a study in humility as the inner battles have but a clear outcome...
I entered the dojo in June of 2009 on crutches; we are now in November and I have mostly regained use of my legs: time to get cracking!
Gentlemen, prepare to defend yourselves!
This is about self protection, but nope, no fancy secret moves, unassuming stances, joint locks or preemptive strikes... We are going to talk about finance: Money, cash, dough, investments, value, cash flows, income, etc... all things that absent can hurt you, your family, your friends, your neighbors and your future. The financial crisis is not over, you must understand it and take action to protect yourselves.
Banks are insolvent:
They were saved last year only by legalized lying allowing them to account assets at ...whatever price they wish!
So what? so that the declining value assets that caused the crisis are still there, just tagged at a different price. Problem solved? NOPE, the problem is just hidden from you for a little while; it will be back, soon, with a vengeance.
Real Estate will go down more:
Commercial RE refinancing is impossible due to shrinking collateral values.
Long term financing (20, 30y mortgages) will become more expensive and harder to get as capital seeks shorter term investment maturities. This will pull the valuation of housing down.
US, UK, Government Debt is ridiculous.
at 12 Trillions, congress will need to once again increase the US debt limit. Recently the US administration announced that by 2019, the debt will be 19 Trillions! Who will finance it? The Chinese you will say? Not a chance in hell, (see further down) so who?
The FED will print the money to buy US TBonds - it is called Quantitative Easing - Think about it: you have to work for your money, they can print it and dilute its value to oblivion.
The dollar is toast:
It may bounce up, even violently at times, but in the end, nobody really wants to hold the thing any more: as demand collapses, so does its value.
Do you still believe buffoon, tax evader Geithner's strong dollar policy?
And by extension, all paper money will suffer:
At present, every country is trying to devalue its currencies to remain competitive; they do that by increasing the money supply & diluting its value as mentioned above.
Jobs are not coming back:
Some clown said we are having a jobless recovery... yes, maybe, but it is not your concern: you should be worried by the 17.5% unemployment (U6) - some, like John Williams even claim unemployment in excess of 23%. You should be concerned about a consumer economy where 70% of GDP was consumerism.
People that lose their jobs are not spending; people that see others lose their jobs, are worried & save money, they don't go out on a spending spree.
So, exactly, what jobs will be created if there is no demand in the economy?
(BTW, if you have a job, by all means and at all costs, keep it! Make yourself indispensable)
Your retirement is dead!
What do you think your retirement fund is invested into? YES, real estate bonds, mortgages, securitized "derivative laced" fraudulent paper from investment banks (yes, they screwed the whole world, think Iceland), Dow Companies bonds (GM?), municipal & state bonds (Kalifornya anyone?), government bonds.
How much is there in the Social Security Trust Fund? Yes, louder please: ZERO! The money was spent and replaced by government bonds (see above the ridiculous levels of that debt)
What about future flows to the trust fund? With unemployment rising, and boomers retiring, future cash inflows to the fund don't look too good.
I won't be rude and ask you about the shape of your 401K or superannuity...
By all means, understand that with FED rates at zero, there are no investment income on the horizon for you and me.
China will not save us:
I agree, hope can make you feel good, warm and fuzzy, for a while... China has lost 20 millions jobs since 2008; spent the largest stimulus (relative to GDP) in the history of the world and intends to boost its exports... With the US & Europe consumers (53% of world GDP) not spending, and the dollar collapsing, who exactly are they going to export to?
For the little story, in the last 3 years, I downsized my furniture manufacturing company in China from 500 to 2 employees (yes, that is 99.6%, not a typo) - we were exporting to the USA!
But, the stock market is up!
Really? in my world, the stock market is down from a year ago... The rally since March? a counter trend rally that will take no prisoners when the bear is back.
How do you explain company valuations going up when revenues and earnings are down?
The only way you can, is by a rising tide of dollars (or pounds, RMB, Euros, etc...) that the central banks are unleashing on the markets - I call that inflation.
Darn, how do I protect myself and my family?
Wouldn't it be cool to be able to purchase insurance against the risks and calamities described above?
Can I?
Yes you can!
But first you will have to re-educate yourselves against nearly 100 years of planned disinformation by banks in collusion with government, and understand the only asset that is nobody else liability:
GOLD!
Could I be wrong?
Sure I could... But we are talking about self protection and insurance here. When you purchase car, sickness or flood insurance, you are not really expecting a disaster, are you? When you train your fav KD martial art, are you really expecting to get mugged?
Same for me here, except I am expecting to get "mugged by my bank"!
How & where can I "educate myself"?
Hummm, a good place to start is by shutting down the noise: stay away from CNBC, Bloomberg and other F(U)TVs... They are the cheerleaders for their master banksters.
Then you could pay a little visit to the "black belts of the new financial paradigm" Jim Sinclair's mineset and Jim Puplava's Financialsense online (dojos)...
Banks are insolvent:
They were saved last year only by legalized lying allowing them to account assets at ...whatever price they wish!
So what? so that the declining value assets that caused the crisis are still there, just tagged at a different price. Problem solved? NOPE, the problem is just hidden from you for a little while; it will be back, soon, with a vengeance.
Real Estate will go down more:
Commercial RE refinancing is impossible due to shrinking collateral values.
Long term financing (20, 30y mortgages) will become more expensive and harder to get as capital seeks shorter term investment maturities. This will pull the valuation of housing down.
US, UK, Government Debt is ridiculous.
at 12 Trillions, congress will need to once again increase the US debt limit. Recently the US administration announced that by 2019, the debt will be 19 Trillions! Who will finance it? The Chinese you will say? Not a chance in hell, (see further down) so who?
The FED will print the money to buy US TBonds - it is called Quantitative Easing - Think about it: you have to work for your money, they can print it and dilute its value to oblivion.
The dollar is toast:
It may bounce up, even violently at times, but in the end, nobody really wants to hold the thing any more: as demand collapses, so does its value.
Do you still believe buffoon, tax evader Geithner's strong dollar policy?
And by extension, all paper money will suffer:
At present, every country is trying to devalue its currencies to remain competitive; they do that by increasing the money supply & diluting its value as mentioned above.
Jobs are not coming back:
Some clown said we are having a jobless recovery... yes, maybe, but it is not your concern: you should be worried by the 17.5% unemployment (U6) - some, like John Williams even claim unemployment in excess of 23%. You should be concerned about a consumer economy where 70% of GDP was consumerism.
People that lose their jobs are not spending; people that see others lose their jobs, are worried & save money, they don't go out on a spending spree.
So, exactly, what jobs will be created if there is no demand in the economy?
(BTW, if you have a job, by all means and at all costs, keep it! Make yourself indispensable)
Your retirement is dead!
What do you think your retirement fund is invested into? YES, real estate bonds, mortgages, securitized "derivative laced" fraudulent paper from investment banks (yes, they screwed the whole world, think Iceland), Dow Companies bonds (GM?), municipal & state bonds (Kalifornya anyone?), government bonds.
How much is there in the Social Security Trust Fund? Yes, louder please: ZERO! The money was spent and replaced by government bonds (see above the ridiculous levels of that debt)
What about future flows to the trust fund? With unemployment rising, and boomers retiring, future cash inflows to the fund don't look too good.
I won't be rude and ask you about the shape of your 401K or superannuity...
By all means, understand that with FED rates at zero, there are no investment income on the horizon for you and me.
China will not save us:
I agree, hope can make you feel good, warm and fuzzy, for a while... China has lost 20 millions jobs since 2008; spent the largest stimulus (relative to GDP) in the history of the world and intends to boost its exports... With the US & Europe consumers (53% of world GDP) not spending, and the dollar collapsing, who exactly are they going to export to?
For the little story, in the last 3 years, I downsized my furniture manufacturing company in China from 500 to 2 employees (yes, that is 99.6%, not a typo) - we were exporting to the USA!
But, the stock market is up!
Really? in my world, the stock market is down from a year ago... The rally since March? a counter trend rally that will take no prisoners when the bear is back.
How do you explain company valuations going up when revenues and earnings are down?
The only way you can, is by a rising tide of dollars (or pounds, RMB, Euros, etc...) that the central banks are unleashing on the markets - I call that inflation.
Darn, how do I protect myself and my family?
Wouldn't it be cool to be able to purchase insurance against the risks and calamities described above?
Can I?
Yes you can!
But first you will have to re-educate yourselves against nearly 100 years of planned disinformation by banks in collusion with government, and understand the only asset that is nobody else liability:
GOLD!
Could I be wrong?
Sure I could... But we are talking about self protection and insurance here. When you purchase car, sickness or flood insurance, you are not really expecting a disaster, are you? When you train your fav KD martial art, are you really expecting to get mugged?
Same for me here, except I am expecting to get "mugged by my bank"!
How & where can I "educate myself"?
Hummm, a good place to start is by shutting down the noise: stay away from CNBC, Bloomberg and other F(U)TVs... They are the cheerleaders for their master banksters.
Then you could pay a little visit to the "black belts of the new financial paradigm" Jim Sinclair's mineset and Jim Puplava's Financialsense online (dojos)...
Total Comments 13
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i Just recently started buying gold and silver as a preemptive for the uselessness of paper and plastic currency thanks to a friend of mine who woke me up to our future economy. We are currently trying to have side businesses with our own income instead of relying on the U.S. government's retirement plan since we are military with over ten years in service enabling us to retire abroad either in the Phillipines or South America.
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Posted 11-21-2009 at 09:32 AM by Mixmasta01
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Congratulations for "waking up" to a new awareness and taking action Mixmasta01.
You mention Gold and Silver - IMHO, Silver has more potential than gold for capital appreciation, however, we need to keep in mind the purpose of Gold as insurance; a prudent mix of both metals is likely a very smart choice. A cash flowing "side business" is also an excellent option that I can only encourage you to nurture. Osu! |
Posted 11-21-2009 at 03:02 PM by FredInChina
Updated 11-21-2009 at 03:04 PM by FredInChina |
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I hear yaLast year I cracked my 401 to pay a lawyer for my sons legal issues. At that time. I wanted to ask the lawyer to let me pay some a lil bit later.
Anyway, I didn't. Now, if I had bought a good piece of gold. It would have gone up 50%. Oh well, it's the story of my life. |
Posted 11-21-2009 at 03:42 PM by knuckleheader
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I understand Knuckleheader that was a missed opportunity.
What are you going to do now? Osu! |
Posted 11-21-2009 at 04:22 PM by FredInChina
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Interesting stuff, Fred.
I agree with a lot of your comments and some are a bit over my head, I wonder if you have read any Robert Kiyosaki? When I read posts or comments such as you have just put together it reminds me to re-read and understand some of Kiyosaki's books. Also you would probably love an email service that my Father subscribes to, I will send you the link in the next couple of days. Osu |
Posted 11-22-2009 at 06:30 AM by simonallaway
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Thank you Simon.
I've read most of Robert Kiyosaki's books ; "Ms InChina" & I actually know Robert & Kim quite well, I helped with problems he had in a venture in China & participated in several seminars in Australia and the US.To help you understand today's economic situation, one book to re-read is "Rich Dad's Prophecy", and of course his new one "Conspiracy Of The Rich". I'll be looking forward to the link to the financial information subscription you are suggesting. Osu! |
Posted 11-22-2009 at 11:03 AM by FredInChina
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This morning's Richard Russel's letter has a passage about gold that is worth sharing - What I like with Mr. Russel is that he has an uncanny ability to explain things simply and is very practical:
Quote:
Many years ago, when I was still living in NYC, I had a subscriber, a Swiss man named Jay Pfister. Jay owned a chemical company. During the early 1930s Jay sold his company to American Cyanamid. That sale made Jay quite wealthy, and he had a home in NYC and one in La Jolla. It was Jay who first told me about La Jolla. Jay suggested that I leave Manhattan and enjoy "a better life" in La Jolla. I thought a lot about Jay's advice. In 1961 I followed his advice, and it proved to be one of the best pieces of advice I've ever received.
One day I met Jay at the Plaza Hotel on 59th Street. We were sipping coffee, when Jay said, "I want to tell you an interesting story. My apartment overlooks the Hudson River. Last Sunday I was looking out over the Hudson, and I saw two large boats heading towards each other. They continued to close in on each other, and I said to myself, 'This is ridiculous'. The captains must be drunk. If they continue on this path, they're surely going to crash." I looked wide-eyed and asked Jay, "So what happened?" Answered Jay, "The 'impossible' happened. The two boats continued toward each other, and they crashed." I never forgot that story. And I apply it to the current economic situation in the US. America has created, according to the experts, 50 to 100 trillion of dollars in unfunded liabilities including Social Security, Medicaid, money spent for stimulus, money promised for future Federal construction plans. The arguments and warnings are that if the US continues to spend in this manner, the dollar will collapse and the nation will be broke. Impossible, you say, but then I think of Jay Pfister's story about the two boats. And the question I ask myself is this -- will our vote-sensitive politicians have the guts to do what's necessary to save the nation? This will mean that for the first time since World War II the US will have to cut back and live within its means. I try to envision how this will happen and what it will be like, and I really have trouble envisioning it. Here's what I think will happen. Before the potential catastrophe actually occurs, the markets will sound the alarm. The dollar will lose its reserve status, and the US will sink into a serious slump. If the dollar becomes an unwanted currency, fiat or central bank-created currencies (all are currently backed with dollars) all over the world will cave in. The knowledgeable money will rush to the only money that cannot go bankrupt -- gold. The panic for gold will be unprecedented, and new currencies will have to be created. To have any authority, the new currencies will have to be backed by gold. In the panic to buy gold, the metal will rise to undreamed-of heights. Question -- Russell, assuming you're correct and gold will rocket higher. At what point, if ever, would you sell gold? Answer -- I'd only sell gold if another high-yielding "safe" currency would be obtainable. It's possible that in order to save the dollar, the dollar will have to provide an attractive yield, or the dollar will once again be made convertible into gold. That seems impossible now, but in this business anything is possible. Question -- Russell, if there is a stampede to buy gold, how do you think it will start? Answer -- If there's a panic to buy gold, I think it will start in China, aided by other Asian nations and probably by Russia. I think China seriously doubts that the US will cut back and do what has to be done to save the dollar. Therefore, I believe China is on a path of accumulating as much of the world's gold as possible (they're doing the same thing with rare earths). At some point, the Chinese renminbi will be seen as the world's strongest currency. The Chinese will then partially-back the renminbi with gold, at which point the renminbi will be the world's new reserve currency. The dollar will be an unwanted "has-been." I've said many times that the Achilles Heel of the US economy is the dollar and its reserve status. The Chinese know that very well At some point the US and China will be enemies in the new economic battle. To prepare for such a time, the Chinese are building their army, navy and air force. They want to impregnable in case of war. They also want to join hands with the Russians. It will be the US and Japan against the new and powerful rivals. Europe, bewildered and feeble, will be a bystander. Question -- Russell, I just read an article in Saturday's LA Times in which the writer questions the rising price of gold in the face of less actual bullion buying around the world. Please explain. Answer -- The columnist's confusion is a result of his treating gold as a supply-demand item -- or just like any other commodity. Gold is not just another commodity, gold is eternal money, and it can rise or fall depending on world investors' sentiment. Gold is little affected by supply and demand, it is affected by how world investors value gold. For instance, if I'm worried about the world situation and I want gold, I don't give a damn who's buying or selling gold, I'll pay the going price, and more if I have to, to add to my total gold ownership. Question -- Should I buy more gold here? Answer -- To those of us who bought gold a year or five years ago, gold looks expensive now. But questions -- is gold really expensive? Does the US have too much debt? Can the dollar avoid a collapse? Those are questions I cannot answer. As I write tonight, gold futures are up over $17. By any standard, gold appears to be overbought. But wait -- I'm wondering whether gold is on the edge of its third, speculative phase and whether gold is starting to go parabolic. If gold is going parabolic, then there's no such thing as "overbought." Gold will continue to rise until it's exhausted. And ultimately it will rise higher than almost anyone is expecting. I've written before that my experience in big primary bull markets tells me that the item in question will advance further than anyone thinks reasonable or even possible. If gold is entering its third phase, I have no idea where it's heading and neither does anyone else. Furthermore, if gold is close to going parabolic, all you can do is close your eyes and place your buy order. Waiting for a big gold correction is going to be a frustrating wait. You just have to pull the trigger and buy it. When the primary trend is up, the bull market will usually bail you out of most of your mistakes (and, of course, you will make mistakes). |
Posted 11-24-2009 at 05:40 AM by FredInChina
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Gidday Fred,
here is the link,http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/ its worth a read, I will also send you some back issues of their daily (yes, hard to keep up with) newsletter. BTW have read prophacy twice but will heed your advice and re-read, and ask for the newbie for xmas...I trust the grading went well. Osu |
Posted 11-27-2009 at 10:55 AM by simonallaway
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G'day Simon, thanks for the link, I've read the daily reckoning on and off for the last few years and it is indeed very good.
I mostly like and enjoy Bill Bonner's write ups to the point that when I was last in London in 2005, I managed to spend an hour with him & was not disappointed the least with our discussion. Gawd I would like to be able to write like he does. Good luck with your Xmas wish list... Osu! |
Posted 11-28-2009 at 10:54 AM by FredInChina
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Everyone I've read you've metGidday Fred,
What with this? it's like everyone I've read you've met ![]() You've got me on the hop now, from a face saving point of view I will not be quoting Mas Oyama from here on in... ![]() OSU |
Posted 11-30-2009 at 10:23 AM by simonallaway
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Ahhh, Simon, I've never met Mas Oyama...
I used to be very shy about contacting & meeting with authors, personalities or public persons - they appeared sort of "inaccessible" to me, out of my world. Then I changed & found that not only meeting with these persons was fairly easy when respectful & using an appropriate angle, but was also extremely valuable and rewarding. I recently was not able to meet with two persons I admire very much: one is Dr Speciosa Wandira, the former Vice President Of Uganda; I contacted her via the Australian Woman World Hunger after she lashed at the Mc Kinsey rep that had not mention Africa once in his opening speech at the last Future Summit in Melbourne with a sharp; "EAT YOUR WORDS" and a pointed finger! The other is Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the Author of The Black swan and Fooled By Randomness that I admire and share the views - he kindly responded to my request explaining that he just had too many people chasing him and needed to retreat a little. But I'll try again... I interviewed and invited Dr Chris Martenson, author of "The Crash Course" to participate to our weekly conference call and podcast that is posted on my website. Maybe I'll turn journalist in the future... |
Posted 12-03-2009 at 09:32 AM by FredInChina
Updated 12-03-2009 at 09:35 AM by FredInChina |
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Hi Fred,
I just googled Taleb, what an interesting character he seems, another book goes on my xmas wish list, Thanks for sharing Osu |
Posted 12-06-2009 at 06:43 AM by simonallaway
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Good on you Sir - you'll enjoy The Black Swan!
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Posted 12-06-2009 at 10:51 AM by FredInChina
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; "Ms InChina" & I actually know Robert & Kim quite well, I helped with problems he had in a venture in China & participated in several seminars in Australia and the US.

